Est. points on Copycat = form × fixtures

The formula

Estimated points ≈ form × soft fixture factor × optional minutes/chance trim.

Soft FDR: easy (1) nudges up ~+25%, average (3) is neutral, tough (5) trims ~−30%. Not form × (6 − FDR).

Results are clamped to a believable single-GW band (max Est 12) so easy fixtures don’t print fake hauls.

What it is not

Not an FPL API field.

Not a machine-learning model.

Not permission to flame someone in chat because ‘the model said 8.2’.

Use it to compare relative upside this GW — then apply your own brain.

Where you’ll see it

Market player table (Est column).

Transfer suggestion IN targets.

Captain shortlist on Squad (same heuristic).